The Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader, is attracting heightened attention as he ages, with both China and India keeping a close watch on his movements and health. The Dalai Lama, who fled to India in 1959, maintained an active travel schedule in the six decades that followed, visiting numerous countries and meeting with royalty, religious leaders, and four U.S. presidents. However, recent years have seen a significant reduction in his activities. His age, now 88, has played a role in this slowdown, as has the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which complicated international travel. Furthermore, his visits have elicited penalties from China, which considers him a separatist figure.
Despite his absence from foreign travel since 2018, the Dalai Lama has pledged to continue moving within India. In October, his sudden cancellation of four trips in India raised concerns among exiled Tibetans and their supporters. The most sensitive of these cancellations was a trip to the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as its territory, and it briefly occupied a significant part of it during a war with India in 1962. The tensions over this region have rekindled since the Dalai Lama’s last visit to Arunachal in 2017, which angered China.
The Dalai Lama’s representatives attributed these cancellations to a recent bout of flu but emphasized that his health is not seriously threatened. They also remained tight-lipped about whether India’s government had requested the delay of the Arunachal trip, which is typically consulted before such travel plans.
Indian officials did not offer a response to inquiries regarding the issue, maintaining their past stance that the Dalai Lama is free to travel anywhere within India. Last year, Indian officials facilitated his visit to Ladakh, a region that had experienced recent border confrontations with Chinese troops.
These cancellations underscore the intricate geopolitics surrounding the Dalai Lama in his later years. His activities, particularly in border areas, have the potential to spark a fresh crisis in the already volatile relations between India and China. Furthermore, concerns over his health are shared by Indian and Chinese authorities, as well as Tibetan Buddhists. All are preparing for a potentially tumultuous period after his passing when China is anticipated to select a successor to compete with the one who, in line with Tibetan Buddhist tradition, is expected to be identified as the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation by his aides.
The first sign of changes in the Dalai Lama’s plans occurred when his office announced the postponement of a visit to the north-eastern state of Sikkim and neighboring West Bengal, initially scheduled for October 16th-22nd, due to flooding. Subsequently, local media reported on October 10th that his visit to Arunachal, which its chief minister had stated would take place in October or November (with a preparatory meeting held in September), had been canceled.
The Dalai Lama’s office issued a statement on October 20th, indicating that due to his recent flu, he would not visit Sikkim in November and would also cancel a planned trip to southern India in the coming weeks. The statement cited his doctors’ advice that travel would be taxing but mentioned a visit to Bodhgaya in eastern India for December, without addressing Arunachal, the birthplace of a previous Dalai Lama.
Tenzin Lekshay, a spokesperson for the Tibetan government-in-exile, clarified that the Arunachal trip was never officially confirmed by the Dalai Lama’s office and pointed to several factors that might have influenced the discussions, including his health, the challenging terrain of Arunachal, and the diplomatic implications. Regardless of his destination, the Dalai Lama seeks to avoid causing inconvenience to the host country.
The timing is crucial for both China and India, who continue to be embroiled in a territorial dispute involving Aksai Chin, a region held by China but claimed by India. The dispute has seen increased tensions in recent years, resulting in clashes along the de facto border. One such clash in 2020 resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian troops and four Chinese soldiers, marking the worst violence in the area since 1967. Another altercation along the Arunachal frontier in December of the previous year led to minor injuries on both sides.
China has also been asserting its claim to Arunachal, referred to as Zangnan or South Tibet, by the Chinese government. China has provided new names for villages in the region and released an official map that includes Arunachal within its borders. In response, India registered protests and dispatched its defense minister, Rajnath Singh, to Arunachal on October 24th.
Despite these skirmishes, neither side appears eager to engage in a full-scale conflict. In fact, both China and India have made efforts to de-escalate tensions along the border by agreeing to buffer zones without patrols, as a result of discussions between military commanders since June 2020. This gradual détente suggests that Chinese leader Xi Jinping may be more inclined to stabilize relations with India than in recent years, potentially to discourage India from developing stronger military ties with the United States. Chinese officials also hope to undermine international support for Tibet, especially in India, following the Dalai Lama’s eventual passing.
Stabilizing the border has become a priority for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who relies on Chinese imports to achieve his economic objectives. With a general election scheduled for 2024, he may be concerned that further clashes, given China’s military advantage, could erode his popularity. However, Modi must also avoid appearing as though he is conceding to China’s demands, as political opponents have criticized him for supposedly yielding territory too readily. The Dalai Lama enjoys broad popularity in India.
In the meantime, the Tibetan government-in-exile must balance concerns about the Dalai Lama’s health with the need to advance its cause, particularly among Tibetans in India. Tens of thousands of Tibetans have departed India in the past decade. However, the government-in-exile also relies on India’s support, hoping it will legitimize and provide sanctuary for a Dalai Lama reincarnation selected by his followers. Penpa Tsering, the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile, expressed optimism that India would extend the same accord to the next Dalai Lama. As for the current Dalai Lama, he intends to work out the details of his reincarnation around the age of 90, consistently predicting that he will live beyond 113.
