Meta’s real-time messaging app, Threads, is grappling with challenges as it strives to replicate its initial success during its July debut. Insider Intelligence’s inaugural Threads forecast reveals that the Twitter clone now ranks among the least popular social media platforms in terms of U.S. users, surpassing only Tumblr.
According to the forecast, Threads is projected to have 23.7 million U.S. users in 2023, lagging significantly behind social media giants like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok, which boast user bases of 177.9 million, 135.2 million, and 102.3 million, respectively. Threads’ closest competitor, X (formerly Twitter), is expected to have 56.1 million U.S. users in 2023, indicating that Threads will have less than half of X’s U.S. user base.
Insider Intelligence predicts that Threads will persist as the second-to-last ranked social network in the U.S. market through 2025, leaving it facing considerable headwinds in its journey to gain prominence.
Meta, the parent company of Threads, has not provided an official response to these findings.
This forecast aligns with a series of third-party assessments from mobile analytics firms like Sensor Tower and Similarweb, all indicating a decline in Threads’ usage.
Threads initially experienced rapid user growth, partially due to its straightforward onboarding process for existing Instagram users. Additionally, it benefited from being perceived as a mainstream alternative to X (formerly Twitter), which has reportedly lost users under the ownership of Tesla’s Elon Musk.
Jasmine Enberg, Principal Analyst at Insider Intelligence, emphasized that while Threads enjoyed an initial surge due to Twitter’s missteps, it cannot rely solely on X defectors for sustained growth.
Enberg pointed out that should Musk decide to introduce a monthly subscription fee for X users, as mentioned during a recent livestreamed conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Meta could potentially find a more direct path to monetize Threads. However, such a move could also alienate X users and attract more advertisers to Threads.
Nonetheless, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has previously stated that the company has no immediate plans to monetize Threads until it gains a more substantial and established user base.
To enhance its appeal, Meta has been introducing various features for Threads, including a desktop version and a search tool. Advertisers and creators have voiced the need for additional features like analytics tools to make Threads a more robust and attractive platform for investment.
Enberg emphasized that Threads must evolve to establish an identity beyond being perceived as an extension of Instagram or a mere alternative to X. To become a major player in the social media arena, Threads needs to offer users a unique social experience, similar to how TikTok rose to prominence by offering a distinct social platform.
In the short term, Threads faces a considerable challenge in its quest for growth. Declining usage and tough competition from rival platforms demand immediate attention and strategic enhancements.
Looking ahead, Threads’ long-term success will depend on its ability to carve out a unique identity and offer an exceptional social experience. The evolution of Threads as a social platform will be crucial in determining its position in the fiercely competitive social media landscape.
